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tv   First Business  KICU  March 25, 2013 4:00am-4:30am PDT

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checking in on paychecks: has the payroll tax increase hit the american wallet? in today's cover story, bracing for higher premiums. ways employers are planning to handle your healthcare. plus, home sweet home: why more baby boomers are investing in home ownership later on in life. and, how basketball brackets can help you meet your money goals. first business starts now. you're watching first business: financial news, analysis, and today's investment ideas. good morning. it's monday, march 25th. i'm angela miles. in today's first look: time marches on. it's a short week for traders with the market closed for good friday. easter is early this year. stocks ended up last friday as it looks more likely that cyprus will get a bailout from the
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european union. gold slid 6 dollars, while oil gained $1.43. time will tell with tech giants. apple, google, samsung and now lg are all rumored to be developing smart watches. and cutting a deal: look for bi-partisan legislation to come from the senate that could overturn the tsa's decision to allow knives on planes. congress reportedly has been swamped with complaints over the tsa's new rule. where does time go? unbelievable, this is the final trading week of march. tim mulholland of china america capital graces us with his presence. we love having you on the show. what will traders be watching for in this short week? > > moving beyond cyprus, we are going to be watching, i think in the month ahead or so, the formation of the italian government, which is, i think,
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going to be very important for italy and for the eurozone going forward. aside from that, we have some regional fed manufacturing reports. and again, this is the end of the first quarter. we are up about 10% in the dow, and about 9% in the s&p. that is not a bad year this quarter i'd say. > what do you suspect will happen, because it is the end of the quarter here. will there be window dressing for instance? > > i think the window dressing part, that has always... the under-invested managers, the under-invested investors, if you will, are going to keep this, so my guess is we are probably going to go out on a top tick, if you will, for the end of the quarter. and then the second quarter, this is usually where the trouble starts. in this recent cycle off the lows the past several years, the second quarter has usually been the one where we have kind of topped out and backed off somewhat. so, i think we will have to our head out for that as we head into may. > where are some places where you would invest right now? > > i think the big-cap blue- chip stocks really are something that are attracting a lot of attention, because many view them as safer than fixed income given their dividends, and, some would say, relative cheapness to the overall market. so, as far
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as i am concerned, i like industrials, i like that story, and i do like the secular energy story in the united states as well. so i kind of like that play, that sector as well. but the overall market, as long as the fed stays doing what they are doing, i don't think we are going to have much trouble. > thank you very much. that is tim mulholland of china america capital. health insurers are not-so- subtly warning that healthcare premiums for individuals and small businesses may go up sharply as portions of healthcare reforms go into effect later this year. our cover story takes a look at who may be most affected first. health insurance carriers such as united health group - the nation's largest - reportedly told brokers premiums for individuals buying their own plan could go up 116%; at aetna, up 55%; and at blue cross and blue shield of north carolina, up a reported 40-50%. with six months before open enrollment of medical exchanges, analysts say it's clear what the insurers are doing. "they're trying to get the message out early so it isn't a shock later. also, they're doing this because of the regulation that affects premium
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pricing." that premium pricing for healthcare he's talking about involves a term called "community rating," a concept that prevents health insurers from charging some people in a geographic area more because of their age, pre-existing condition or other factors. as a practical matter under the affordable care act, it means younger and presumably healthier partipants will bear more of the system's cost. "if you're healthier or younger, you'll pay more. if you're older or sicker, you won't see much of an increase." aetna and others are also warning small businesses to brace for increases, but some of these may be offset with tax credits. another alternative to coverage
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options - none of the above - involves paying penalties which may be cheaper than providing insurance. "it may affect hiring at some small businesses, but not large ones. but it won't hurt the economic recovery in any major way." analysts say this is the time of year to begin sorting out your options and figuring how much in premiums, co-pays and deductables you're willing to pay. one helpful website is the surpreme court is set to hear a case today refered to as "pay for delay." that's when major drug companies pay generic competitors to keep close copies of the drug off the market until a certain date. regulators say the practice costs consumers, insurance companies and the government billions every year. it's viewed as big drug companies monopolizing the market. however, drug manufacturers see it as a way to avoid long, drawn-out patent court cases.
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sequester cuts are causing friction between the airline industry and the faa. reports say an airline industry trade group is pressuring the faa to make budget cuts without furloughing employees. the faa calls the cuts unavoidable. on friday, the agency did scale back on plans to close federal contract towers. 189 towers were supposed to close. the faa will now only close 149, due to concerns over national security and the economy. a suprising new study from shows when the payroll tax cut ended this year, it did not have a major effect on all consumers. "more than half of americans haven't noticed the payroll tax expiring at the first of the year. and, even more surprising, those that were expected to cut back on their spending as a result - the lower-income households - are the least likely to have cut back on their spending." greg mcbride of says americans earning between $50,000 and $75,000 were more likly to cut back on spending because of higher payroll taxes, compared to people making $50,000 or less, who did
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not change their spending habits as much. tuning in now to some corporate earnings, friday, two big-name stocks provided a lift to the markets. tiffany sparkled when it reported solid 4th-quarter results as sales in asia picked up, especially for silver jewelry, while darden restaurants also beat the street. revenue was up thanks to some new restaurant locations. however, it did see net income drop due to slower sales at red lobster. the chain has been in heated competition with fast-casual chains that offer quality food for less. darden's stock is up 9% this year. car buyers are taking out longer loans. research from jd power and associates shows a record 32% of car buyers took out 72-month loans, which is 30%
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more than a year ago. reasons why consumers are taking longer to pay off the big ticket purchase: interest rates are extremely low and car prices are on the rise. the average car purchase is $28,500. ipo stocks are surging. shares of marin software gained more than 40% after its ipo on friday and were going strong. model n shares topped $20 in its first week, but fell to $18.45 at the close, while aviv reit stock is keeping its ipo gains and closed over $22 on friday. meanwhile this week, pinnacle foods is expected to raise $667 million in its ipo. and a vote on whether the company that owns the empire state building should go public has been pushed back to april 8th. the malkin family needs 80% of the landmark's unit-holders to approve of the plan. so far, it's got about 2/3 in support of the proposed ipo. pepsi bottles are getting a makeover after 17 years. the new 16- and 20-ounce bottles have a contoured bottom and shorter label to show more of the drink. the more shapely
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bottles roll out in april. it's part of pepsico's plan to compete with rival coca-cola, especially after pepsi sales slipped 4% last year. despite a derivatives debacle costing more than $6 billion and a senate investigation that found jamie dimon dodged regulators and misled investors about it, dimon still has the strong endorsement of jp morgan's board of directors. so much so that the board wants him to remain in the dual role of chairman and chief executive. the endorsement of dimon comes after the company overhauled its risk controls, replaced top executives and cut dimon's pay in half last year. european regulators are looking into apple sales overseas after wireless carriers complained of antitrust issues. they say sales contracts with smaller distributors of iphones and ipads are stricter and violate competition laws. meanwhile a greener apple is growing. the company now uses
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100% renewable energy in its data centers in the u.s., and 75% worldwide. also, reports are swirling the company is rolling out its new iphone 5s this summer, as well as a less-expensive iphone 5 that has plastic casing. blackberry's new phone goes on sale in verizon stores this week. so far, the market seems unimpressed with blackberry's latest launch. the stock sold off on friday, ending the day down by around 8%. the z-10 is the latest smartphone joining the club. blackberry is hoping to be a bigger player against samsung and apple. the z-10, the company's new touch-screen phone, allows users to use multiple apps at a time. the phone prices in at $199, and is available with at&t, verizon and t-mobile. barnes & noble is giving away gadgets this week. the bookstore chain is offering free nook simple-touch e-readers to
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customers who buy the nook hd tablet. the nook simple-touch did not catch on with consumers as well as the company anticipated. it may be doing the give-away to push the product out the door. the deal ends saturday. the usual suspects top forbes' list of the richest billionaires in the world. 1,426 billionaires are on the list this year. the net worth of those on the list? a staggering $5.4 trillion. carlos slim-helu tops the list again this year with $73 billion in the bank. bill gates slides in the number 2 spot with $67 billion. amancio ortega of retailer zara is third, followed by, of course, mr. buffett himself and oracle's larry ellison. still to come, how a tip-off from march madness can bring a bounce to your finances. that's later. but first, why boomers are taking more than baby steps toward owning a home. a shocker from the housing sector is next with bill moller.
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this might surprise you: there is really a booming number of boomers who are becoming first- time home-buyers. it's a fact. what's behind this? let's talk with ryan gable. he is the founder of a realty that for almost 10 years has been focusing solely on the first- time homebuyer. now, we typically think of the first- timers as being a young couple,
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some people in their 20s. > > yes. all we deal with are first-time home-buyers, and what we have noticed over the past few years is that the group over 40-years-old takes up about 20% of our market. > who are these people? were they previously renters? > > pretty much all of them. what has happened is that they have gone through some sort of a lifestyle change. a big one is maybe somebody that has gone through a divorce, and the wife has never bought a place, and she is coming into some money, they are selling the house, and she has never gone through the process. we have that, or somebody else that, they inherit money, or they get a job promotion. a lot of older people are getting college degrees later in life, and now they get a job promotion, and that is when they call us and they say, "hey, we are thinking about buying our first house." > what are the reservations that they feel? > > as renters it is always, the landlord is taking care of
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the property, taking care of the house; they have rented the same place for a very long time and they are very comfortable. so, this is outside of their comfort zone. so that is what we talk with them about. if they're nervous about taking care of the exterior of the place, maybe a condominium or a townhouse is something that they are interested in. so we try to fit it that way. > ryan, i would also wonder if somebody in their 40s, 50s, 60s, who walked into your office, might say, "i am probably going to outlive the mortgage. can i really qualify?" > > absolutely. there is no age restriction to getting a mortgage. there is actually a mortgage product that you have to be 62 or older to get. so there are many products, everything that is available to a 30-year-old is available to a 50- or 60-year-old. > how about qualifying? i know that there is sometimes a reluctance to take this step, because they don't think they will qualify. > > the first thing we tell people any age group that call us is we put them in contact with the lender to find out exactly whether they are qualified or not. and we often find people in this age group are very qualified. they do have money in the bank, they do have very good credit scores, and they are very worthy of
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buying their first home. > ryan gable. thank you so much. > > thank you very much bill. thank you bill. still ahead, how to use "bracketology" to avoid financial fouls. that's next.
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time now for some financial bracketology. the national endowment for financial education is stealing a page from the n.c.a.a. to help americans score with their money. paul golden of nefe joins us via skype this morning. good morning to you. > > good morning, good to be with you.
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> how well do americans do with their brackets? > > this is a great thing with the financial 4s, there are no upsets in this, and there are not going to be any wrong answers. what the financial 4 provides is basically a way to kind of look at how you prioritize your financial goals. what we have done is we have come up with 32 financial concepts that people need to be thinking about and mindful about when it comes to their finances, and they run them through the bracket, and they come up with their financial 4, which should be the top things that they should be focused on this year. > give us some of those topics that you are running through. i want to talk about all 32, but just give us a few. > > sure. it is everything from living within your means to having mindful communication with your family members about finances, managing food costs and dining out expenses, having a will and calculating how much you are going to need for retirement. so it is a really wide scope of financial priorities. > so as americans were filling these brackets out with these financial issues, you also had certified financial planners taking a look at the brackets, and what do they have to say? > > that's the fun thing. this is the second your we have done the financial 4 in partnership with the financial planning
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association. and what we do early on is we have certified financial planners go in and fill out their brackets. we had almost 300 do it this year around. and what they do is they come up with what they deem their financial 4, the top four things that people need to be thinking about in terms of their goals for 2013. top to bottom, those look at living within your means, which is a very fundamental concept that sometimes we really escape; having adequate insurance coverage in place is number two; number three is being able to assess your debt and manage a plan to get out of debt if it is a burden to you; and final four of those topics is having emergency savings in place to deal with those unexpected expenses. > how do you think americans are doing overall with their wallets? > > i think americans have been very mindful of how they are spending, how they are using credit, and how they are saving, particularly since the recession happened in 2007. this has been a very long, drawn out, painful teachable moment for us, but a lot of us have kind of learned why it is important to practice frugality, to practice
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thrift, and to have that savings cushion, because it is very important. > thanks for coming on the show paul, and we will give you three points on that one. > > thank you. coming up, a trader shares how he hopes to make money by the end of the quarter with just a few days to go. chart talk is next.
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andrew keene, president of, takes us to south america for a trade. good morning to you, and happy monday andrew. > > happy monday angie. > now the stock, pbr, it is a brazilian company, they mine oil as well as natural gas. it almost looks like a screaming buy at these current low levels. what do you think? > > i don't know about "screaming buy," but a lot of my trading is based on unusual option activity. i look to see
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what the edge funds, mutual funds, and retail traders are doing in big, big orders. on thursday, i saw a huge call buyer for the march 28, $18 calls. the stock was trading $16.90. what is resistance is support, support resistance. the long-term trend is actually down on this, but i think it is going to hold this support level at the $16.68 level, so i actually bought some calls. the long-term chart is actually trending down, so i don't want to put on an aggressive position, but i think it has bottomed out. with oil, i think if oil goes up, the global growth story comes back, this stock can pop back up to the $18 level. > exactly. because it has been a poor-returning stock so far for a lot of people out there. but, the government is allowing the company to raise prices on oil, so that could be a good thing. moving on to seagate technology, what do you see there? > > yeah, stx, stx has been a little bit under-performing the other hard drive spaces. we see wdc on fire, we see sandisk at 52-week highs, so those have been performing very well. stx, very similar concept: we saw aggressive call buying in it stx. they were buying april 34s, and they were buying april 39s. now they are buying weeklies for next week's 36 calls. i think we are going to get end-of-the-quarter markup. this friday is end-of-the- quarter mark-up - it is the last
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day of the quarter. i think a lot of these stocks are going to run up into this. i think stx is a perfect example. on friday, it bounced off that 50-day moving average at $34.16. i like what they're doing globally. they are based out of dublin, but they have good exposure to the global growth story. we've seen mixed earnings in technology. mu went higher, oracle went lower; but i like what stx is doing, and with aggressive call-buyers, i bought some calls, i can define my risk vs. reward. i think the stock heads higher this week. > interesting. thank you andrew. have a good one. > > thank you. our time is up, but there's plenty to look forward to tomorrow, including why non- profit groups are losing a grip on givers. from all of us at first business, thank you for watching. we hope it's a great monday!


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